Publication Details
Title: Dynamic Prediction of Traffic Flow and Congestion at Freeway Work Zones
Author/Presenter: Jiang, Yi
Abstract: It is often necessary to establish work zones on roadways for pavement and bridge repair and rehabilitation activities. A work zone reduces the number of lanes available for traveling vehicles and therefore forms a bottleneck section for traffic flow. The ability of dynamically predicting traffic flow rates with real-time data is essential for highway engineers to maintain smooth traffic flows at work zones. It would enable them to apply traffic control measures to prevent traffic congestion at work zones rather than to deal with traffic problems after traffic congestion already occurred. It was found in this study that using the Kalman predictor in combination with the first-order autoregressive time series provided satisfactory dynamic predictions of work zone traffic flow. A prediction of traffic flow at a work zone also constitutes a prediction of traffic congestion if the traffic capacity of the work zone is known. If the predicted traffic flow rate is equal to or greater than the traffic capacity, a traffic congestion is expected in the coming time period and appropriate traffic control actions can be taken to prevent the traffic congestion.
Publisher: Transportation Research Board
Source: National Research Council (U.S.). Transportation Research Board. Meeting (78th: Washington, D.C.). Preprint CD-ROM
Publication Date: 1999
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